Shiran Zecharya

GVPT 200 Shirk

Mearsheimer p.29-54

In John Mearsheimer’s scathing depiction of the fear and lack of trust that have long dominated international politics, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, Mearsheimer asserts that when states exist in anarchy, one state cannot gain power and security without decreasing those of other states. Based on this realist assumption, one would conclude that China’s recent rise in power threatens the future of global peace and the US’ status as the only existing regional hegemon. This perspective, however, fails to take into account the proliferating influence of interdependence in global politics. The United States and China have become increasingly interdependent since the two reestablished diplomatic and trade relations in the 1970’s and the success of their economies rests on the prosperity of their respective markets. This interdependence will prevent tension from ensuing between the two as China’s influence on the world continues to grow. Furthermore, as globalization continues to alter the nature of international relations, interdependence will prevent future violence from occurring among states as polarity and regional hegemony continue to shift unpredictably.

Realists, such as Mearsheimer, often argue that since it is impossible to know other nations’ intentions, they constantly fear when other states make relative gains. This fear in conjunction with the security dilemma concept lead most realists to conclude that China’s growing strength could have negative implications for not only the US, but the world as a whole. As China’s power and influence continue to grow, many see the nation as becoming a regional hegemon in the east, as the US is in the west. Furthermore, many would assert that China will soon begin to promote its desires abroad more aggressively and could potentially reignite Cold War-era divisiveness and tension or, to the extreme, war. While this logic holds a great deal of validity when looking at the causes of and conflicts within the Cold War, it is unlikely that a similar situation would occur now between the US and China because of globalization and their improved economic relations.
                 These changes became apparent in the 1970’s when President Nixon and his Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, visited China in an attempt to reestablish diplomatic and economic relations. As China’s economy opened up to trade with the west, Chinese leaders such as Deng Xiaoping began to institute a series of reforms intended to modernize its economy. Economic changes within China and the new found relationship with the US brought the two to be principle trade partners. Additionally, it is widely accepted that China’s economy would suffer without American demand, and vice versa. Now, about a decade into the 21^st century, there is minimal evidence that China’s growth may threaten the US or lead to conflict in the future because the two are economically interdependent. Furthermore, this economic interdependence facilitates cooperation and mitigates tension between the two. Therefore, although it is unlikely that China’s growth will slow in the near future, it is also unlikely that this growth will bring about conflict.

Interdependence is undoubtedly changing the way world leaders conduct foreign policy, acting as a glue that forces states to rely on others to ensure their own prosperity. In a globalizing world, states must depart from their self help ideas of conducting foreign relations and embrace the new found interconnectedness that is altering the way states perceive each other. As a result, leaders will begin to lean toward cooperation and diplomacy as solutions to conflicts that seem to previously have been only resolvable through military might.