Lauren Wilhelm
October 3, 2013
GVPT 200
Debs and Monteiro
While
the United States is only a regional hegemon that does not mean it doesn't have
a large power influence throughout the rest of the world. In Debs and
Monteiro’s blog post “What Caused the Iraq War? A Debate.” they argue that the
U.S. motivation for invading Iraq was fear of too large a shift in the balance
of power between the U.S. and Iraq if they did in fact possess nuclear weapons
or weapons of mass destruction. However, this is not the case because the U.S.
possesses enough power that a power shift giving another country military power
might deter the U.S. from going to war with them but is still not enough to
threaten the United States’ power. This is illustrated in the U.S. government dealings
with Syria currently. The U.S. government was actually more focused on engaging
in a preventative war to keep Iraq from becoming untouchable like North Korea
in the international scheme of things, and to make sure they weren't connected
with Al Qaeda, it was not to keep Iraq under the U.S. government’s thumb.
The
first point Debs and Monteiro assert is that the U.S. invaded Iraq on suspicion
to determine whether or not they were housing programs that developed weapons
of mass destruction and the U.S. government was worried that potential
acquisition of such weapons would drastically shift the balance of power. If
this were the case then wouldn't the U.S. be worried about this same issue with
Syria presently? The U.S. government is fully aware that the Syrian government
possesses chemical weapons and was using them on their own people but they also
suspect Syria to have 1,000 tons more of chemical agents that can be delivered
anywhere by aircraft, missiles or rockets. If our government was that concerned
with “potential” power fluctuations based on “suspicion” then we should be a
lot more concerned with Syrian obtainment of chemical weapons because we have
knowledge that they are willing and have used these weapons on innocent people.
The U.S. has many reasons promoting and preventing war with Syria but none are
to keep Syria under the U.S. control like D&M claim was the case with the
Iraq war. Instead advocates for war with Syria want war to prevent Syria from
causing too much damage in the international system and also want to stop
further murder of innocent people.
D&M further claim that the U.S. was so
worried that increased Iraqi military power on such a large scale would make
war with Iraq in the future more costly and harder to control because the U.S.
would be viewed as less of a threat to them. This cannot be the case because if
the U.S. government were that concerned with balance of power due to potential
increased military threats then they wouldn't be so reluctant to go to war with
Syria currently. If they stick with that argument then it would make sense to
invade Syria now to prevent them from acquiring more chemical weapons rather
than wait until they finally due, making war a non-option.
Finally,
there was also the eminent question that if Saddam Hussein was in fact
proliferating WMD programs, would he allow terrorist groups like Al Qaeda
access to these weapons. This issue was of concern because it was a huge
international security quandary, not a factor in whether the U.S. would lose power
to Iraq. The U.S. is at an impasse with Syria presently for similar reasons,
which don’t involve a power shift. The U.S. is uncertain if the rebels are
receiving assistance from terrorist groups and therefore don’t know what the
international implications of going to war with them would be. It is not a
matter of who would be on top of the power scale in the end.
While
Debs and Monteiro do make many excellent points, they are slightly misguided in
their argument. The United States possesses enough power that military
achievements of other countries are not going to threaten the United States’
power. However it may affect the international system enough that the U.S.
engages in a preventative war to keep the consequences from being to grave
worldwide. The U.S. did not go to war with Iraq to keep itself on top in that
particular power balance but in order to prevent future devastation. If the
U.S. were solely concerned with the distribution of power between itself and
other countries, then Syria would be considered a much larger threat currently.
It is not the individual power distribution between the U.S. and Iraq that they
were concerned about because the U.S. is too large a power to be threatened
easily, but it was the repercussions that could occur internationally if they
didn't prevent Iraq from developing WMD’s.
I am not sure that I agree with you in your comparison of Iraq and Syria. While both countries had leaders who were using chemical weapons on their own civillians, I would not go so far as to saying that we will be going to war with Syria and we see them as a threat the US' power and regional hegemony. I think that the US got involved in Iraq for both humanitarian and strategic purposes that were mostly motivated by 9/11 because after the attack, both the public and congress were more likely to support counter terrorism measures even though it was not clear that Hussein had any connection to the attacks. In Syria, I think the nature of our governments inclanation to intervene is more similar to the Rwandan Genocide than Iraq; except much worse because the conflict in Syria has been going on for more than two years and the Rwandan Genocide only went on for a few months. I also do not really agree that you can compare arming rebels in Iraq and Syria. In Syria, the rebels are a very diverse group and many have extremist intentions and may be linked to terrorist organizations, like you mention. I think that the rebel situation is a lot like the Soviet Afghan War in the 1980's where the US under President Reagan armed and supported the resistance to the existing Soviet government, the Mujahedin, and as a result, the Mujahedin's victory brought about the rise of extremist factions and the taliban in Afghanistan. I think the US government is reluctant to intervene because even once Assad has been taken down, there is another greater question of how to ensure that Syria does not fall into the wrong hands and remains stable and democratic. We see a lot of countries who underwent revolution in the Arab Spring, such as Egypt, struggling right now to reinstill a stable democracy. This level of instability would surely happen in Syria as well if and when Assad falls because the resistance is so diverse.
ReplyDeleteI think that the power shift that Debs and Monteiro were talking about was a regional one, i.e. that the U.S. would lose power in the Middle East with a stronger Iraq. If this is the case, would you still argue against power shifts as a reason for the Iraq War?
ReplyDeleteI see what your saying but I also think that the United States is not going to war with Syria in the near future because it does not want another Iraq war. Going off of what Professor Shirk asked, I think that power shifts were part of the reason for the Iraq war because the United States needed to prove to the American people and to the world that they would not let the 9/11 attacks go. Also, the American people were all for this war; they believed that the United States needed to take a stand.
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ReplyDeleteIf D&M's argument was about regional shifts then I wouldn't completely disagree. If this is the case then I understand how the U.S. would want to maintain some form of authority in the Middle East and a rising Iraq could shift their amount of influence. However, I don't know if that would pose enough of a threat to the U.S. regional influence to be a reason for war. Even if Iraq gained more power due to nuclear development they are so unstable that they wouldn't be as much of a threat to U.S. control but more to countries around them and themselves.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Estefania that the US went to war with Iraq at the time mainly because the public was at a very vulnerable point after 9/11, and we wanted to take some type of action. I think that we would have gone to war with Syria if we had experienced some type of direct affect from their use of chemical weapons. For example if we or one of our close allies had been attacked, then the US would have faced another situation like the one in Iraq.
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